Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
